China’s Exports Beat Expectations Again: What’s Next for International Logistics?

April export growth far exceeded market expectations, driven by the “three engines” — EVs, lithium batteries, and semiconductors.

Rising cargo volumes bring not just orders, but also higher capability thresholds.

International logistics providers — are you ready?

In the post-pandemic era, the logistics industry has moved far beyond the days of simply competing on freight rates and container availability. The partners that foreign trade businesses truly need are those who can weather cycles, master expertise, and deliver solutions.

01

The Data: Exports Continue to Exceed Expectations

According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs for the first four months of the year:

  • Total goods trade: 16.23 trillion RMB, up 14.9% YoY
  • Exports: 9.33 trillion RMB, up 11.3% YoY
  • Imports: 6.9 trillion RMB, up 20% YoY

April alone was even stronger:

  • Total trade: 4.38 trillion RMB, up 14.2% YoY
  • April exports (USD basis): up 14.1% YoY, far exceeding market expectations of 8.4%

Clearly above expectations.

02

Not “Front-Loading Exports” — Real Strength

Some attribute this high growth to front-loading exports ahead of potential tariffs. But the product mix tells a different story.

Key categories – Q1 export growth:

+77.5%
Electric Vehicles (EVs)
+50.4%
Lithium Batteries
+77.0%
Semiconductors

These are not short-term policy-driven surges, but the result of technological and industrial chain advantages.

At the same time, export diversification is accelerating:

  • To ASEAN: +20.5%
  • To the EU: +21.0%
  • To South Korea: +24.5%
  • To Russia: +22.0%

This brings brand new route and layout opportunities for international logistics.

03

Domestic Infrastructure Also “Backs” This Growth

Leading indicators released by the State Information Center for April also sent positive signals:

  • National average construction machinery operating rate increased by +3.6 percentage points month-on-month
  • Port logistics, large-scale hoisting, and earthwork construction – all three major sectors comprehensively recovered
  • Capital investment in AI and humanoid robotics increased by 175.2% year-on-year
  • Winning bids for data, computing power, and network infrastructure increased by 61.7% year-on-year

These will translate into new export growth points in the coming year.

04

Export Trend Forecast for the Coming Year

Three Key Drivers

1
Continued strength in high-value-added products
Categories like electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and semiconductors have global competitiveness, with limited impact from tariffs.
2
Enhanced substitution effect in emerging markets
High growth rates in regions like ASEAN, the EU, and Russia lead to a more stable export geographic structure.
3
New infrastructure + AI investment activating new export categories
Computing power equipment, intelligent terminals, and robotics will become next-phase growth points.

Two Major Risks

  1. Comprehensive US tariff rate exceeds 30%, putting pressure on low-value-added goods.
  2. Global demand uncertainty: If European and US economies slow down, it could impact order sustainability in the second half of the year.

Forecast Conclusion

Over the next year, total exports are expected to maintain medium-to-high growth (6–10%), with a clear structural divergence.

High-value-added categories will continue to grow strongly, while traditional labor-intensive goods will face pressure.

Quarterly trend: Stronger in the first half, stabilizing in the second half.

05

The Triple Dividend for the International Logistics Industry

Dividend Explanation
Volume Dividend Continued export surprises; high-density, stable-frequency logistics demand for EVs, lithium batteries, semiconductors.
Structural Dividend High growth rates in ASEAN, EU, Russia directions allow for optimized route networks.
Value Dividend High-value goods have higher requirements for speed, temperature control, and compliance — leading to higher freight rates, higher entry barriers, and stronger stickiness.

Cargo is upgrading, markets are diversifying. Logistics partners who can provide customized solutions and reliable, stable delivery are becoming significantly more irreplaceable.

06

Industry Status Quo: Cyclical Reshuffling, Stronger Players Emerge

Post-pandemic, the logistics industry has undergone a deep adjustment.

In places like Taicang especially, significantly impacted by the broader economic environment, branch offices of many major logistics companies from Shanghai and Suzhou have successively withdrawn, leading to a phase of industry contraction.

Judphone International Logistics also experienced downward pressure but consistently adhered to a strategy of deep cultivation in the local market and steady progress, avoiding blind price wars and cutthroat competition.

Since the second half of last year, alongside the foreign trade recovery, our business has steadily picked up and grown against the trend. Our team has also proactively recruited professional talent to strengthen service capabilities.

Unlike traditional logistics companies that only handle booking, trucking, and customs clearance —

Judphone acts more like a dedicated logistics consultant for foreign trade enterprises:

When clients encounter difficulties with customs clearance bottlenecks, route selection, tariff compliance, special cargo transport, cost optimization, etc., we don’t just perform routine operations. We excel at proactively identifying problems, dissecting pain points, and tailoring one-stop solutions, using consultative services to help clients avoid risks, save costs, and ensure stable lead times.

Rather than just a logistics company, Jiufeng is better described as a consulting partner that understands logistics and trade.

07

Challenges and Suggestions for the Industry

Four Major Concerns
1
Tariff and compliance pressure – US tariff rate exceeds 30%, clients may try to squeeze logistics costs.
2
Capacity and cost volatility – Tight capacity and rising freight rates during peak seasons.
3
Service capability threshold – Goods like lithium batteries and semiconductors require specialized qualifications.
4
Payment and credit risk – A pullback in global demand could affect payment cycles.
Three Recommendations for Logistics Providers
1
Build high-value-added logistics capabilities – Establish standardized processes for lithium batteries, semiconductors, and temperature-controlled cargo.
2
Diversify routes and nodes – Increase intermodal capabilities for ASEAN, Central Asia, and Russia directions.
3
Strengthen compliance and risk planning – Continuously track tariff policies, offer solutions like transshipment and overseas warehousing.

Position yourself as an indispensable supply chain partner, not just a provider of capacity.

08

End

China’s exports are transitioning from “price advantage” to “technology + industrial chain advantage.”

For the international logistics industry:

The question over the next year is not “Is there cargo to move?”

But rather, “Can we move this cargo well?”

Seize the high-growth categories, optimize route structures, enhance professional capabilities —
This is the key for logistics enterprises to achieve sustained growth amid fluctuations.

In Taicang, in the Yangtze River Delta, there is a company called Judyphone International Logistics. It walks alongside its clients through every storm by “identifying problems — dissecting problems — solving problems.”

If you are also looking for a logistics partner who understands not just freight, but also trade, perhaps it’s time to get to know us.


Post time: May-18-2026