As 2026 begins, a major announcement signals the end of policy-driven growth for the photovoltaic (PV) industry.
The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration issued an announcement on January 9th:
✅ Effective April 1, 2026, the export value-added tax (VAT) rebate will be fully eliminated for 249 product items covering the entire PV industry chain and key materials.
✅ The rebate for battery products like lithium-ion batteries will be reduced first, phasing out completely by 2027.
This marks the official conclusion of the decade-long “export tax rebate bonus period” for the industry. The short-term shocks and long-term industry reshuffling have already begun.
One Table to See the Impact: How Significant is the Rebate Withdrawal?
| Dimension of Impact | Short-term (2026-2027) | Medium to Long-term (Post-2027) |
| Enterprise Cost & Profit | Direct increase in costs, squeezing profits. Export profit for a 210R module may decrease by 46-51 RMB. | Forces technological upgrades and management efficiency improvements. Shift from “relying on rebates” to “relying on technology and brand”. |
| Market Price & Competition | ① A “rush to export” wave is imminent, potentially spiking Q1 orders. ② Module prices may rise by 0.05-0.06 RMB/W. |
Eliminates low-cost competitors, increases industry concentration. Competition shifts to technology + brand + service. |
| Industry Structure | Battery and module segments face the greatest pressure. Companies lacking technology and bargaining power will struggle. | Advantages expand for companies with overseas capacity, high-efficiency technology, and global brands. |
| International Trade Environment | Reduces suspicion of low-price dumping, helping to alleviate international trade frictions. | Promotes more rational pricing in overseas markets, fostering more sustainable international trade relations. |
The 2026 Window is Open: Three Imperatives for Companies
During this policy window, companies must act immediately:
- 1. Re-negotiate Pricing, Lock Down Risks
● Immediately negotiate adjustments to prices for unsigned orders with clients to share cost pressures.
● Incorporate price and cost linkage clauses into long-term contracts to hedge against policy fluctuations. - 2. Bet on Technology, Enhance Value Premium
● Shift to high-value technologies: High-efficiency products like BC, HJT, perovskite tandem cells are the future trump cards for pricing power.
● Explore emerging sectors: Venture into high-barrier, high-value-added fields like space-based photovoltaics to build a “second growth curve”. - 3. Expand Global Footprint, Localize Production
● Accelerate factory construction in regions like Southeast Asia and the Middle East to bypass tax and trade barriers via localized production.
● The 6% tax rebate for batteries remains in 2026. Integrated manufacturers can prioritize direct exports of cells to maximize the use of this policy window.
The Long View: After Short-term Pains, Genuine High-Quality Competition Awaits
The withdrawal of tax rebates will inevitably squeeze profits and trigger industry consolidation in the short term. However, it also fundamentally breaks the cycle of “low-price internal competition”. The future of PV going global will no longer be about price wars, but about technology wars, brand wars, and service wars.
Those who can adapt swiftly during this window will secure their footing, or even gain ground, in the “post-rebate era”.
Policy-driven → Market-driven
Price competition → Value competition
This time, it’s the true beginning of competing on real strength.
Post time: Jan-16-2026